FBS Playoff Predictions

As of now, the Sunday before the conference championships are played, I see Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington in the FBS playoffs. I believe Alabama will be seeded #1, Clemson #2, Ohio State #3 and Washington #4.

Who’s in?

Alabama (12-0)

They are in regardless of whether they win the SEC Championship. They’re just playing for the number 1 seed in the playoff.

Ohio State (11-1)

They are in. They should be the number 2 seed in the playoff, but I think the committee will punish them for not winning their conference championship. Whether they drop to the third seed or fourth depends on how Clemson and Washington do.

Clemson (11-1)

Beat Virginia Tech and they’re probably the second seed. If Alabama slips up in the SEC Championship, they could get the number 1 seed. But if they lose to Virginia Tech, they could be knocked out of the playoffs.

Washington (11-1)

Beat Colorado and they’re in. The question is what seed the committee thinks they deserve. I’d have them as the 4th seed, but the committee may put them above Ohio State since Ohio State didn’t win their conference.

Who needs help?

I think only four other schools have a reasonable shot at the playoff. Here is how I think they get in.

Colorado (10-2)

Colorado can get in if the following happens:

  • Colorado beats Washington
  • and Clemson loses to Virginia Tech (although this might not need to happen)

Wisconsin (10-2)

Wisconsin can get in if the following happens:

  • Wisconsin beats Penn State
  • and Clemson loses to Virginia Tech
  • or Washington loses to Colorado

Penn State (10-2)

Penn State can get in if the following happens:

  • Penn State beats Wisconsin
  • and Clemson loses to Virginia Tech
  • or Washington loses to Colorado

Michigan (10-2)

Michigan gets in only if the following three things happen:

  • Clemson loses to Virginia Tech
  • Washington loses to Colorado
  • Penn State beats Wisconsin

And then its chaos! The committee would have to decide between Michigan, Clemson, Colorado, Washington and Penn State for the final two spots. At that point, I’d put Colorado and Penn State in for winning their conference championships.

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