College Football Realignment

College Football is in turmoil. Texas A&M has fled the Big 12 and joined the Southeastern Conference. So the Big 12 is now down to nine teams. And Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are expected to leave as well. Are we witnessing the beginning of the super-conferences? Will the Big 10 expand again? Will they go after the remnants of the Big 12 or will they invade the Big East or ACC? Will the Big East and ACC join forces to produce their own super-conference? And where in the heck does Notre Dame fit in all this realignment mess? Will this be the end of major college football as we know it?

The consensus says we will wind up with 4 super-conferences consisting of 16 teams each. I don’t like that. Too many schools will be left out of this. What happens to a school like Boise State? College football is eating itself. This is capitalism at its worst. Unfortunately, the NCAA has little control over the conferences. In an ideal world, the NCAA would be in charge, and they would decide what conference a school belongs to. What we need is a football czar. Television rights need to be split. Conferences and schools should not be getting their own television packages.

In my own fantasy world, I would be the czar of college football. I would create the following system for major college football. I would have 4 major conferences. Each conference would have 2 divisions with 9 teams in each division. You would play all 8 opponents in your division. You win your division if you have the best record in your division and play the other division winner in your conference for the conference championship. Each of the four conference champions would play in a national semi-final game. The games would be played at the higher seeded schools. A national championship game would be played two weeks later. The money from the national championship game would be split amongst all 72 schools. A playoff! What a concept!

Here is my breakdown of conferences and divisions:

North Conference

Division 1 Division 2
UConn Ohio St
Pittsburgh Michigan
Rutgers Michigan St
Syracuse Indiana
Penn St Purdue
Boston College Northwestern
Cincinnati Illinois
Nebraska Wisconsin
Notre Dame Minnesota

East Conference

Division 3 Division 4
Virginia Tech South Carolina
Clemson South Florida
North Carolina Florida St
North Carolina St East Carolina
Miami Florida
Virginia Kentucky
Maryland Georgia
Georgia Tech Central Florida
West Virginia Louisville

South Conference

Division 5 Division 6
Alabama TCU
Auburn Texas
Ole Miss Texas Tech
Mississippi St Texas A&M
LSU Baylor
Tulane Oklahoma
Arkansas Oklahoma St
Southern Miss Missouri
Houston Tennessee

West Conference

Division 7 Division 8
Iowa Washington
Arizona St Washington St
Iowa St Oregon
Kansas Oregon St
Kansas St Boise St
Arizona Stanford
Colorado California
Utah UCLA
BYU USC

I’m allowed to dream, right?

NCAA Final Four predictions

So we’re down to the Final Four. It’s been one of the most exciting basketball tournaments ever.  Poor Butler.  Last year’s Cinderella team. No Cinderella this year. Oh, they’re back in the Final Four again. But this time, they’re being overshadowed by VCU.  Butler and VCU will face-off in the first semi-final game next Saturday.  Should be a defensive struggle.  And in the other bracket will be a couple of well-known powers, Kentucky and UConn.

Based on my latest rankings, we have two very exciting basketball games in store.  UConn is ranked #6 and Kentucky is ranked #8. Butler is ranked #34 and VCU is ranked #41.  But ignore the rankings.  On March 7th, my rankings had UConn at #13, Kentucky at #29, Butler at #57, and VCU was ranked #76.  Here are the current power ratings for each school:

  1. UConn 61.935
  2. Kentucky 61.761
  3. Butler 59.898
  4. VCU 59.543

Based on these ratings, here are the chances of each team advancing to the championship game:

  1. Butler 52.04%
  2. UConn 51.00%
  3. Kentucky 49.00%
  4. VCU 47.96%

Nobody is a clear favorite in either game.  These should be tremendous games.  So who’s the favorite to win it all?  Well, based on my ratings, here is the breakdown:

  1. UConn 31.86%
  2. Kentucky 30.15%
  3. Butler 20.27%
  4. VCU 17.76%

So it seems that the winner of the UConn/Kentucky matchup has the best chance to win the national championship.  But I wouldn’t put money on it.  Butler and VCU have proven that they not only can play with anyone, they can beat anyone.  It should be a fun ride!