NCAA Final Four predictions

So we’re down to the Final Four. It’s been one of the most exciting basketball tournaments ever.  Poor Butler.  Last year’s Cinderella team. No Cinderella this year. Oh, they’re back in the Final Four again. But this time, they’re being overshadowed by VCU.  Butler and VCU will face-off in the first semi-final game next Saturday.  Should be a defensive struggle.  And in the other bracket will be a couple of well-known powers, Kentucky and UConn.

Based on my latest rankings, we have two very exciting basketball games in store.  UConn is ranked #6 and Kentucky is ranked #8. Butler is ranked #34 and VCU is ranked #41.  But ignore the rankings.  On March 7th, my rankings had UConn at #13, Kentucky at #29, Butler at #57, and VCU was ranked #76.  Here are the current power ratings for each school:

  1. UConn 61.935
  2. Kentucky 61.761
  3. Butler 59.898
  4. VCU 59.543

Based on these ratings, here are the chances of each team advancing to the championship game:

  1. Butler 52.04%
  2. UConn 51.00%
  3. Kentucky 49.00%
  4. VCU 47.96%

Nobody is a clear favorite in either game.  These should be tremendous games.  So who’s the favorite to win it all?  Well, based on my ratings, here is the breakdown:

  1. UConn 31.86%
  2. Kentucky 30.15%
  3. Butler 20.27%
  4. VCU 17.76%

So it seems that the winner of the UConn/Kentucky matchup has the best chance to win the national championship.  But I wouldn’t put money on it.  Butler and VCU have proven that they not only can play with anyone, they can beat anyone.  It should be a fun ride!

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